According to Fujirumors, Fujifilm is working on a new camera that will have a sensor size never before used by Fujifilm. I have no idea what that means, but I thought it might be fun to speculate what some of the possibilities are. Who knows if this is an X-series camera… it could be GFX. It could be a digicam or something like the XP80 waterproof camera. It could be Instax, since they have the EVO and PAL models. It could be something else entirely. For the sake of this article, I will assume that it is X-series; however, it very well might not be. I think this is one of those times where it’s best to keep expectations in check and not get your hopes up too high. Still, it can be fun to guess.
My very first thought is that it could be an X30-like successor—perhaps called X50—with a 1″ sensor. The Fujifilm X30 had a tiny 2/3″ 12mp X-Trans II sensor, but was still a good compact zoom, and is fun to use even in 2024. While a successor would need to be significantly different, I do believe that if it has a 1″ 20mp X-Trans V sensor, a 9mm to 37mm (24mm to 100mm full-frame-equivalent) f/2-4 zoom lens, IBIS, EVF, and retro tactile controls (no PASM, please), it will do quite well. There is a renewed interest in these types of cameras right now. Alternatively, a fixed-focal-length wide-angle option could be good, too.
Another idea would be to use the sensor found in the latest GoPro models. It has a tiny 1/1.9″ 27mp sensor with an unusual (almost square) 8:7 aspect ratio. The benefit of the unusual sensor shape is it allows for vertical videos without having to tilt the camera sideways, so obviously it would be a video-centric model, perhaps in the action camera realm. Most likely this would not technically be an X-series model, but it is possible that Fujifilm could use an X-Trans array. I don’t think this is a likely option, unless Fujifilm has thought of some way to stand out in what is already a crowded scene.
I doubt that Fujifilm has any interest in Micro-4/3. I think that MFT is too close to APS-C that they would only compete against themselves; aside from that, MFT is basically a declining market. Still, it is possible that an X100-like or X70-like compact fixed-lens MFT camera is in the works, I just see it as highly unlikely.
An intriguing option that I’ve suggested a couple of times (first in 2019, actually) is APS-H. There aren’t a lot of APS-H cameras anymore, but it used to be more common. Canon made some, as did Sigma. Since APS-H is about 15% larger than APS-C, not all APS-C lenses cover the entire frame. Sigma’s solution was to automatically crop to APS-C for the lenses without full coverage, and I would suggest that Fujifilm take the same approach. While some Fujifilm lenses will fully cover APS-H, some—the majority, actually—won’t; for those that don’t, the camera would automatically crop to APS-C.
The reason why Fujifilm might do this—and the camera that Fujifilm might do this for—is XPan on the future X-Pro4 (or maybe called X-Pro5). Where APS-C lenses struggle to cover APS-H are the corners, so the not-fully-covered lenses would be just fine for the XPan aspect-ratio, since the corners are cropped out. The roughly 50mp APS-H sensor would produce roughly 27mp XPan images. For lenses without full coverage with the 3:2 aspect ratio, you’d still get a 40mp APS-C photo; however, for the lenses with full coverage, you’d get the full 50mp-ish picture.
The only other option I can think of that makes sense is perhaps a full-frame X100-like camera. I don’t believe that Fujifilm has any interest in creating a new lens mount, so I would be completely shocked if Fujifilm made any interchangeable-lens full-frame models. Fujifilm would mostly be competing against themselves, and would undercut both their X and GFX lines; aside from that, the full-frame market is quite crowded and highly competitive. But, a premium fixed-lens full-frame camera might sell very well. Fujifilm would have to do something to differentiate it from the X100VI so that they aren’t directly competing against each other, and I have no doubts that they can.
If I were to bet on what it will be, my guess is none of these, that it’s not an X-series camera. If it is in the X-series, I think the top odds are that it is a 1″ sensor compact camera of some sort. An APS-H X-Pro with the XPan aspect ratio would be super cool, but unlikely in my opinion. With the massive demand for the X100VI, a full-frame version could be a huge sales success. Eventually we will know for sure, but for now we can only speculate, and most of those guesses will turn out to be wrong. Still, it’s fun to dream.